How will the reduction of QE affect the markets?

Forecast for a week 8 – 12 November: # SP500: Fed USA announced plans to reduce quantitative mitigation program (QE). Since mid-November, the volume of redemption of assets will be reduced monthly to $ 15 billion per month. Thus, in mid-July, the Fed printing machine will be completely turned off. The head of Fedrev, Jerome Powell, once again stated that after the completion of QE, there should be a long time that the monetary authorities began to raise interest rates. In general, such a situation is favorable for the American stock market. Let me remind you that after the mortgage crisis of 2008, Fedrev also began to aggressively print money as part of a quantitative mitigation program, which was completed in March 2010. Then the American stock market growth to the complete completion of QE, after which he fell by 17% for several months. If this time the story is repeated, then we will have an increase in the stock market until the middle of the summer of next year, after which we will see a strong correction in the fall. . Trading Recommendation: Buy 4638/4590 and Take Profit 4700. #Bent: As part of the next OPEC summit + The largest world oil producers agreed to increase black gold production for December in the amount of 0.4 Mlm b / s. This month of OPEC countries + produce 39.69 million b / s. Thus, in December, production will grow to 40.09 million b / s. According to the head of the OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, production growth will not significantly affect the structural deficit of the proposal in the world oil market – the shortage in the fourth quarter will be about 1 million b / s. For oil prices, a favorable signal, since the proposal deficit historically contributes to the growth of black gold quotes. According to the hereditary Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Ibn Salman in the first quarter of next year, we should expect a seasonal decrease in oil consumption and petroleum products, which will lead to the disappearance of hydrocarbon deficit in the oil market. Thus, high oil prices are maintained in the next two months, after which the technical correction should be expected. Trading Recommendation: BUY 81.95 / 79.70 and Take Profit 85.25. XAUUSD: The leading world central banks begin to gradually move to tightening credit and monetary policy, which is negative for gold quotes. If last year, many Central Bank sharply lowered interest rates and included a printed machine in response to a coronavirus infection pandemic, now we are witnessing the reverse process. Central Bank of developing countries aggressively increase interest rates, and central banks developed countries reduce the pace of buying assets. If last year the gold will go, now we should expect a reverse reaction. In the global market of gold is now an overabundance of production capacity – production exceeds demand. This factor, taking into account the reduction in the emission of dollars by the Fed of the United States, can be a “catalyst” for falling prices for yellow metal. Trading Recommendation: SELL 1825.50 / 1840.10 and Take Profit 1800.15.