Fed will provoke sales sales

Forecast for the week January 24-28:

# SP500:

American stock market Three weeks in a row demonstrates a decline in the new five days, I expect the continuation of the downward trend, since the US Fed Wednesday will hold the first The meeting this year, where it will give landmarks to change credit and monetary policy. Some Investbanks suggest that the Fed already at this meeting announces the reduction of QE, which, in their opinion, will be completed on February 15, after which it will increase the interest rate At the March meeting at once 0.5%. In my opinion, Fedrev will not act so aggressively, as it is fraught with panic sales in the financial markets. Fed will act according to its former plan, which involves the completion of QE on March 15 and raising a rate of 0.25% at a meeting on March 16. With this outcome of the SP500 index, there are excellent opportunities to test semi-annual minimum 4272.

Trading Recommendation: SELL 4496/4551 and Take Profit 4272.


IT-Companies Under the wave of sales this month, since the expectations of interest rates in the United States has a negative impact on the capitalization of high-tech corporations. Why it happens? The ITs are traditionally traded with a high price / profit (P / E). If on average in the market this figure is 30, then the Internet companies have much higher. For example, the Autodesk indicator is 42.5. When the interest rates of Fed are low, then investors do not pay attention to this factor and buy promotions of high-tech corporations. When the monetary policy is tougher, the market is always extremely sensitive to P / E multiplier.

Trading Recommendation: SELL 245.42 / 254.04 and Take Profit 234.75.


In a new five-day, I expect a decrease in gold quotes, which will have a negative impact on the capitalization of the Canadian Barrick Gold gold miner. Shares of the company completed the last week on a six-week maximum and current levels are attractive to open the SELO positions. On Wednesday, January 26, the Fed US will hold the first This year, a monetary policy meeting, where he announces the increase in interest rates this year. Fedreve can raise a rate of 3 or 4 times, which will have a negative effect on the precious metal, which is traditionally sensitive to changing monetary policy in the United States.

T Organizing Recommendation: SELL 19.35 / 19.62, Take Profit 18.97.