Fed may surprise markets

Forecast for a week February 14-18:

# SP500:

Fed USA on Monday will hold an unscheduled meeting on Monday. According to the Schedule, Fedrev should have gathered on March 16, but for some reason decided to meet this week. What is such a hurry? In my opinion, the monetary regulator can announce the termination of the quantitative mitigation program, since inflation is now on a 40-year-old maximum and further redemption of assets will only enhance inflation processes in economics. It is rumored on the market that one QE does not limit itself and the Fed will increase the interest rate by 0.25%. With this outcome, the sale of the stock market will increase, since investors are not ready for such emergency Fed Erase. But I do not believe in such a scenario, because if they wanted it so much, they could raise a bet on the January meeting. Maximum that can announce on Monday is the termination of QE, but even if nothing happens, then this week will all early will be heavy for the stock market, Since the US Department of Finance will hold a number of auctions, within which liquidity will be taken from the financial system in the amount of $ 81 billion, which is almost three times more than a week earlier.

Trading Recommendation: SELL 4485/4590 and Take Profit 4306.


OPEC published a fresh overview of the oil market. Oil reserves in OECD countries are still below five years of average, but the figure for the last month has decreased by 44 million Barr. If in the past year, reducing reserves Black gold, then this year, reserves will gradually grow against the background of increasing production by OPEC countries +, as well as the United States and Brazil. Oil cartel expects a proposal of 1.3 million b / s. Last year there was a deficit of 1.6 million b / s. In the scarce market, the price is always growing, at a surplus market decrease – this is a simple rule. The surplus began last month, the truth is as long as the indicator is modest – 70 thousand b / s. But in February it will increase to 470 thousand b / s., And in March, it can reach 700 thousand b / s. Reduction Stimulating measures in the United States will have a beneficial effect on the dollar, which in turn can be a “trigger” for the sale in the oil market, since the American currency and black gold have a reverse correlation.

Trade Recommendation: SELL 94.50 / 95.90 and Take Profit 89.50.


Central Bank of Russia Last Friday increased a key bet on 100 bp to 9.5% and promises at the next meetings to raise a bet again. Such a situation negatively for the MTS company two reasons. First, The companies have a large debt and the growth of the key rates will lead to an increase in bank loans, which will reduce the operating income of the company. Secondly, MTS is traditionally viewed by investors as the “dividend chip”, which has a dividend yield significantly higher than the key bet, and since the Central Bank plans to make a bid of double-digit, then the dividend yield comes with a bid, which will reduce the investment attractiveness of stocks. Taking into account the factors’ investment attractiveness. I expect to reduce MTS quotes during this months.

Trading Recommendation: SELL 293.50 / 297.20, TAKE PROFIT 285.90.